Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AVAX prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-23 0.003541 0.003869 0.004221 0.004625 0.005078 0.005572 0.006153
2025-11-30 0.003012 0.003479 0.004013 0.004674 0.005475 0.006423 0.007640
2025-12-07 0.002754 0.003302 0.003959 0.004815 0.005914 0.007294 0.009189
2025-12-14 0.002481 0.003059 0.003778 0.004752 0.006057 0.007777 0.010272
2025-12-21 0.002253 0.002842 0.003596 0.004651 0.006119 0.008137 0.011204
2025-12-28 0.002085 0.002683 0.003470 0.004602 0.006233 0.008560 0.012261
2026-01-04 0.001971 0.002585 0.003411 0.004634 0.006452 0.009146 0.013623
2026-01-11 0.001843 0.002455 0.003297 0.004573 0.006523 0.009508 0.014670
2026-01-18 0.001738 0.002349 0.003205 0.004532 0.006616 0.009905 0.015816
2026-01-25 0.001639 0.002245 0.003108 0.004475 0.006672 0.010243 0.016896
2026-02-01 0.001570 0.002178 0.003061 0.004486 0.006836 0.010769 0.018379
2026-02-08 0.001490 0.002090 0.002975 0.004430 0.006881 0.011094 0.019525
2026-02-15 0.001402 0.001989 0.002867 0.004337 0.006868 0.011337 0.020600
2026-02-22 0.001352 0.001944 0.002844 0.004382 0.007100 0.012056 0.022772
2026-03-01 0.001326 0.001932 0.002872 0.004513 0.007495 0.013126 0.025885
2026-03-08 0.001262 0.001858 0.002793 0.004454 0.007536 0.013512 0.027548
2026-03-15 0.001196 0.001777 0.002699 0.004361 0.007504 0.013744 0.028895
2026-03-22 0.001145 0.001716 0.002635 0.004316 0.007558 0.014159 0.030760
2026-03-29 0.001111 0.001682 0.002613 0.004345 0.007759 0.014908 0.033623
2026-04-05 0.001065 0.001625 0.002548 0.004288 0.007781 0.015270 0.035542
2026-04-12 0.001025 0.001576 0.002495 0.004251 0.007840 0.015718 0.037793
2026-04-19 0.000985 0.001525 0.002435 0.004198 0.007859 0.016077 0.039870
2026-04-26 0.000957 0.001495 0.002410 0.004208 0.008014 0.016777 0.043129